Originally dubbed as the Valentine’s Day storm for New Mexico, this beast of an upper level low has wreaked havoc on our forecasts for the state. The storm originated from north central Pacific waters, and earlier prognoses brought the storm over the state as an “open wave” upper level trough on Feb 14. This storm has given all computer models fits, and has now taken a much slower and more southerly track, and has strengthened to a fully closed off Low. As of Friday afternoon, we’re expecting only about 1 to 2 inches of snowfall in the Albuquerque area, beginning after 12:00AM Saturday and tapering off by noon. Because the track of the low is now riding along the Mexican border, it will be interesting to see the effects of our easterly wind on precipitation formation. A brisk wind gets enhanced over Albuquerque due to channeling of the winds through the Tijeras canyon east of the city. We have already seen intermittent wind gusts up to 40mph last night and this afternoon (and Margie reported sustained winds of 50mph from the ultrasonic sensor at her work). Often the leading edge of these winds will create a surface convergence area and enhance precipitation near the Rio Grande valley. However, if an easterly wind spills over the Sandia Mountains to our east, precipitation can be suppressed as the winds sink down the western slopes of the Sandias. Given the deep profile of the easterly winds with this current system (up to 300mb!), it will be interesting to see how this phenomenon interacts with the dynamics of the upper low itself. This storm will also dump a mess of wintry precip over west Texas on Saturday.
